The world as we know it is going through some amazing changes now; not just physically, so let’s leave the Climate Change arguments aside and all the phenomenal natural disasters we have endured this year. I am talking politically, philosophically and perhaps ideologically. Judeo-Christian values, so much a part of Western philosophy, are being demonized and stand undefended. This is so much the case that demonizing Judeo-Christian values is considered legitimate, while any negative aspersions on Islamic values is sensitively seen as illegitimate.
As we head into what appears a global financial meltdown the West is looking shaky. Both the US dollar and the Euro are struggling and 2012 will be a landmark year in determining how this crisis will be handled. At the same time we have an “Arab Spring” that seems to be democratically installing Islamist governments throughout the Middle-East.
This is being opaquely mirrored in the west with the “Occupy Wall St.” movement and in Russia with the protests over the election result. This was recognised this week by “Time” magazine when they named “the protester” as their person of the year. As is my nature, I tend to be more pessimistic and see this as a year of discontent on a global level.
While democracy is seen as a step forward, it should also be remembered that we are talking about countries and peoples with no background in democracy or how it functions. Democracy is not innate, it is taught. The idea of a government for the people, by the people is a foreign concept for anyone not brought up in that environment. A strong political leader felled, leaves a vacuum that must be filled. This vacuum usually coincides with a lack of political organisations let alone parties; and any parties that already exist are tainted by their connection with the outgoing regime.
A fundamental flaw in western thinking about the Middle East has always been in applying western (read: Judeo-Christian ) values to a situation in where the people have, at best, a vague understanding of western values. This is reflected in the expectation that the people revolting against cruel despot was necessarily a cry for a change in the system rather than a change in leadership; that protest marches are led by philosophers rather than disgruntled citizens; and most seriously-unity in protesting equates to unity in goals.
Islamism is a minority position in most Arab countries, but an organised position with strong base support. It is also a position that people tend not to oppose publicly, because they don’t want to be seen as anti-Islam. In the vacuum that is left after the felling of a despotic regime the only organised political party is the Islamist party; usually because they had been outlawed by the out-going despot. Both of these points help gain support among the locals. The West is being seen as the power behind the felled regime and is therefore unpopular. Islamist rejection of all things western is another draw card.
The majority of the population in the Arab countries that have had revolutions are not religious, let alone Islamist in their views. However the lack of political savvy and organisation of those that were at the forefront of the Arab “Spring” has meant that they were not to be the direct beneficiaries of their actions.
Apart from the Islamists the only other strong political voice is that of the military. Daniel Pipes argues in his article “Lion’s Den: Revolution or coup d’etat?” (Jerusalem Post 2/2/11) argued that the military would not allow a totally Islamist government to take power. While more recent events have indicated that Islamists are indeed forming government (see: Barry Rubin’s article in the Jerusalem Post- The Region: Islamist in power? What could go wrong? Printed 6/11/11) if the elections in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt are anything to go on. However I’m not so sure that Daniel Pipes was wrong. I believe the military is going to maintain a disconnect from the executive and keep their options open.
In the west we have been enamoured with the romanticist idea that the youth using new universal technology (social media) toppled the old regime. We have assumed their rejection of the old regime and their embracing of the social media technology, necessarily made them pro-western. These are false assumptions based on not just an ignorance of the region, its people and their mentality, but also based on a certain arrogance.
Middle Eastern countries judge the western powers on their actions, but do not perceive these actions from a western point of view, or with a similar value system. This is important to realise, because European powers seem to base their approach to the Middle East on feelings of guilt over their colonial past. Unless it was particularly cruel[i] the colonial rule was largely seen as positive in the development of all of those countries. Eventually a liberation movement would form, but this was largely due to political maturation of the local population.
Ironically the Europeans are racked with guilt over their colonialist past, but truth be known, while it did impinge culturally on those occupied countries, there were many benefits as well; not the least of which was becoming part of the global community. However whether I am right or wrong on that issue is neither here nor there, because it happened; for better or worse. We will never know how Africa, the Middle East and most of the southern hemisphere would have developed without European colonialism and it therefore doesn’t matter. Should Europeans feel guilty? If they want. Do the formerly oppressed blame the colonialists? Maybe. Do either matter? No, not at all.
Today we talk about the Arab Spring (albeit 8 months long already) that has dethroned four despotic regimes and it continues. We read about Syria and Yemen, but hear little about what is happening in Jordan or even Iran. If Robert Fisk, writing in “the Independent” is to be believed King Abdallah’s time as king is limited. That is not to say that Assad is on solid ground in Syria either. Melanie Phillips in her article in “the Daily Mail” painted a rather gloomy picture.
We prepare to leave 2011 with a much changed Middle East, an uncertain Middle East and one can’t help thinking, a Middle East that is an increasingly important and integral part of the world. Of course there are still a couple of weeks to go, so maybe I’m talking way to early.
Russia as perceived by the west has been falling behind an Iron Curtain being put in place by ex-KGB boss Putin. There is no doubt that Russia is not as corruption free, or as transparent as most western countries and that Putin has been very heavy handed with opponents. It was expected that Putin would be crowned King in coming elections. However the elections for the Duma and resulting ongoing demonstrations would seem to be a sign of growing tolerance rather than the powerlessness of Russian democracy. It may not be to Putin’s liking, but legitimate opposition seems to be the price of staying in power. Once again we depart 2011 and await and interesting 2012 in Russia. The posturing of Russia has been instrumental in shaping the developments around the world and so must wait to see where Russia sits in this fluid stage of world politics.
I say a fluid state of world politics, because I get the feeling that since the Cold War we are looking for clear sides to align with. It was a far simpler world. My sneaking suspicion is that we are headed towards a polarised world (maybe two-headed, maybe three-headed) again.
The “Occupy Movement” in my mind has two incarnations; one American, the other-the rest. The Occupy Wall Street Movement was a legitimate response by a sizeable amount of people who have been hard hit by the GFC. More than in any other countries Americans have seen huge payouts to banks and corporations to “bail them out” and continue to pay astronomical salaries to their executives, while average Americans were feeling the pinch.
This election year will be critical in how America rebounds towards a more robust economy. However the economy is just part of the problem. America is a society divided and congress and Capitol Hill don’t see eye to eye on much at the moment.
America will close out 2011 having put the Iraq war to sleep, well at least in terms of major manpower commitment; the economic assistance will be ongoing. It will now have to deal with a huge influx of returning servicemen in an economy that is neither growing nor providing jobs. While Iraq wasn’t a defeat, it wasn’t a victory either; and there will be no morale boost from the end of the war.
The Occupy movement in Australia was, or rather is, small and seemingly inconsequential. Of course the movement in Europe is larger and far more radicalised than the American model. It is more violent and supported by a variety of interest groups in society. This is just one of the many focal points of Europe today, although many are intertwined.
Social unrest in Europe has many sources. Multiculturalism has had mixed success, but European countries that have long been the destination of choice for peoples from the former colonies and now of course it the destination of choice for those that can manage to flee the Middle East or western Africa. The GFC is greatly affecting Europe. The Eurozone had stronger economies holding up the weaker economies in the understanding that as soon as one country goes a domino effect could well be in place.
One of the biggest problems facing Europe is that the traditionally strong economies are struggling. Greece, Portugal aside, the eyes are on the Italian, Spanish and even the French economy. The crumbling weaker economies resolve to stand by austerity measures is also important. Unity of purpose may be enough to pull Europe through the financial crisis, although I doubt it.
It still faces many social questions. High unemployment and a growing underclass, which just so happens to be largely Muslim, are likely to cause many new flashpoints and may lead to a renewal of large scale terrorist attacks.
Here in Australia we just seem to float happily along largely untouched by the malaise in the world. Were the opposition to be believed the government is marching into Armageddon. I would like to think to a large degree, although nothing like it used to be, Australia is still the lucky country.
I haven’t even mentioned the natural disasters of 2011-: Auckland, Queensland, Japan all in the first 4 months, but of course the list went on. While man can do little to stop these random events, how he responds is perhaps an appropriate topic for a future blog.
Just over a month ago I lost my sister to Mesothelioma. She was a warrior to the end trying to stay alive a little longer for her daughter. She died 2 weeks short of her daughter’s third birthday. It summed up 2011 for me.
I wish anyone who reads this blog a very happy New Year and let’s hope that 2012 is a good year for all (I have no doubt that it will be an interesting one)
[i] The colonial powers were largely benevolent governments with the goals of “advancing the society” with a western understanding of what that means. That is not to say they did not exploit the countries or its native population.
